Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Round 2



It was all too apparent when Chelsea & Bill walked on stage to hug Hillary in front of a clamoring audience in New Hampshire late Tuesday evening - that this political race was headed right back to the trenches. After what became a landmark loss in Iowa only a short week before, the Clinton camp responded with what some would say was a “must win” for her to keep atop the marathon for Democratic nominee. With all polls pointing in the direction of Barack Obama leading into Tuesday’s New Hampshire caucus - political analyst are scrambling to figure out exactly how Hillary was able to swing the vote in her favor in such a short amount of time.

Yet the questions now lie in how Obama’s camp will deal with this moment of adversity. As he spoke through an unprepared speech Tuesday night you could tell there was a touch of defeat in his eyes – still he delivered an amazing speech and began to change the sentiments of his own campaign. Yes we can he repeated various times - "We've been warned against offering the people false hope. But in the unlikely story of America there has never been anything false about hope. For when we have faced down impossible odds... generations of Americans have responded with a simply creed that sums up a spirit of a people. Yes we can. Yes we can. Yes we can" (Huffington Post). But maybe its time to save the puff speeches, and take it back to the mats – possibly Obama’s campaign got caught up in their own hype.

Furthermore perhaps the swing of votes outside of the polling data, were in what happened Monday afternoon. Clinton met at a local coffee shop in Portsmouth, N.H. to talk to some of her supporters, in which a woman of the audience asked “How do you do it?” Eyes welling with tears her voice straining, Hillary replied that it was hard, that she was struggling with the pressure of running in such an historical race. In quite possibly the most personal moment we’ve seen of Mrs. Clinton this decade, she connected with her audience in a way that no policy rancor ever could. This is known as the “mommy” factor – she looked vulnerable yet intent on getting her point across and people felt sympathy for her. As she hugged her family on stage Tuesday night she began a speech that sounded more like her competition – adopting change through experience as her slogan. She even went as far to tell her audience to join her on hillaryclinton.com – is she trying to grab a piece of the online media that Obama has so far effortlessly controlled? Is it too late?

This triathlon of a Presidential race is now wide open, neither candidate can rely on anything that has happened up to this point – it is back to square one. It’s coming out of the 1st quarter the score still tied. Yet like any other marathon, do you really want to be the one out front being chased down? Other questions sit with the media direction of both campaigns – more importantly how Obama spins this last vote. The Obama camp can’t forget that the Clinton operation has now turned into a movement, voting for Hillary is voting for a piece of history too. It’s not as cut and dry as Hope Movement v.s. Political Juggernaut. The campaign messages leading up to next Tuesday’s debate will be very interesting – more so who can take back control of their message. We are moving at the speed of light here – there’s no room for mistakes – after a loss or a win it’s on to the next ballot the next vote to try to secure victory.

Last but not least the other candidates running took some of the pie home themselves. Richardson showed up with 5% of the votes, Edwards after a very good debate Saturday ended up with 17% of the vote. One can only think that those votes could’ve have perhaps been taken away from Obama in some degree and very well could’ve led to a different outcome in New Hampshire. Furthermore whomever the large Union’s decide to back will play a large part in the sway of these primaries.

No matter what the cause of the polling gone wrong and the “comeback kid” pulling one off for tiny Tim, it’s back to work for both candidates. Both still have a lot to prove. In an event that’s bigger than the Super Bowl – the leader of the next free world lay’s in balance. It’s still to close to tell who has a real advantage – either or America and the world get a chance to witness a piece of cultural history at every caucus turn. It’s all about the big momentum and who can carry it the best – not relying on the polls – which candidate can deliver what they preach now not later. This Presidential election is not about who will be elected in November – its about the moment and who the American public will elect right now. No one can predict this, not even the polls, only time will tell. Either or this will be one of the most amazing political years in the history of this country. One that will shape the future of the nation one speech, puff piece, debate and caucus vote at time. What do you think?

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